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2016-01-06 新通教育


1.The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
  “Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
  1, 错误类比:color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.同时,忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的?很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以,两者更不同。
  2,gratuitous assumption:二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到,或者技术已经out of date.

6.The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.
  “Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
  1,因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive,所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的,如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool,那么很可能导致失败。
  2,H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。


10.The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
  “This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
  1,没有投诉不代表没有不满。很可能学生以其他的方式发泄不满意,比如absent the class, leave the school earlier, 等等。One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that。。。很可能他们已经知道了学生去protest了,所以才没有去。
  2,200名学生不具有代表性的说法不对。很可能是被推选出来的elected to represent the entire students。缺乏根据的论证,错。
  presumptuous 专横的

11.The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
  “In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
  1, 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事,很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业,建立了更多具有competitive advantages的企业。也是好事。
  2, 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间,全国的经济不景气,造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样,也是个错误!recession depression downturn低迷时期

12.The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.
  “Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two -thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
  3,没有排除他因。如过sale上升了,那也有可能是别的原因导致的,而不是因为广告。比如thanks giving,比如商品质量提高,花样更多,比如最近的经济很好等等。


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